Early voting has begun in Texas with two university surveys naming different leaders in the governor's race, where Democrats seek their first statewide victory in more than 30 years.
The Texas secretary of state reported a record 19,041,684 registered voters ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa and Libertarian Pat Dixon on the certified ballot.
A University of Houston Hobby School survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted Oct. 10–14, put Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 46%. The school reported a margin of error of 2.19 percentage points. An earlier University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey of 861 likely voters, conducted Sept. 25–Oct. 5, put Hinojosa at 49% and Abbott at 48%. That one-point difference was within the earlier poll's 3.34-percentage-point margin of error.
The Hispanic or Latino share of Texas residents rose from 37.6% in the 2010 census to 39.3% in the 2020 census. Those population figures do not measure turnout. Among Hispanic likely voters in the Hobby School poll, Hinojosa led Abbott 51% to 42%; Abbott led 66% to 27% among rural likely voters.
Hinojosa's campaign says its outreach to Latino voters has focused on living costs and access to health care. It said it held a Spanish-language town hall in Houston on Oct. 1 and released a bilingual advertisement on Oct. 2. Abbott's campaign has emphasized property taxes and border security.
Both university surveys also placed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate contest. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found that 53% of Democrats described themselves as extremely enthusiastic about voting, compared with 37% of Republicans. Those responses measure stated interest, not ballots cast.
Election officials must receive applications for mail ballots by Oct. 23. In-person early voting ends Oct. 30, before the Nov. 3 election.
