The Federal Reserve’s current interest rate range carried an 86.6% market probability of remaining in place at its Oct. 28 meeting, according to prices on the US prediction exchange Kalshi.
The most likely range shifts higher for the following meeting on Dec. 9. The 4%-4.25% band carries a 65.7% probability, compared with 18.6% for the current range, Kalshi prices showed.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its live-feed quotes were taken at 04:58:38 UTC on Oct. 21, with contract volume for the nearest meeting at 13 million.
The current federal funds target range is 3.75%-4%, FRED data as of Oct. 20 showed. The supplied figures do not identify when the central bank last changed that range.
For Oct. 28, the 4%-4.25% band ranks second, with an 11.9% probability in Kalshi’s distribution. The 3.25%-3.5%, 3.5%-3.75% and 4.25%-4.5% bands each carry a 0.5% probability.
The implied expected upper bound for that meeting is 4.03%, Kalshi prices showed. That puts the probability-weighted upper bound 3 basis points above the top of the current target range.
For Dec. 9, the 4.25%-4.5% band carries a 12.5% probability, behind the higher-ranking 4%-4.25% and current-range outcomes. The 3.5%-3.75% band has a 1.8% probability, Kalshi prices showed.
The remaining December probabilities are 0.9% for 4.5%-4.75% and 0.5% for 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper bound is 4.23%, or 23 basis points above the current upper limit.
For Jan. 27, 2027, the 4%-4.25% band remains the largest outcome at 44.7%, Kalshi prices showed. The 4.25%-4.5% band follows at 33%, while the current target range carries 12.9%.
The January distribution assigns 6.4% to 4.5%-4.75% and 2% to 3.5%-3.75%. It assigns 0.5% to 4.75%-5% and 0.4% to 3.25%-3.5%, Kalshi prices showed.
The implied expected January upper bound is 4.32%, Kalshi prices showed. That is 32 basis points above the current upper limit and 9 basis points above December’s implied level.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. Each meeting’s market prices five possible decisions: a 50-basis-point cut, a 25-basis-point cut, a hold, a 25-basis-point increase or a 50-basis-point increase.
The target-range distributions result from chaining those probabilities forward from the current range. For later meetings, the bands therefore reflect the cumulative paths through preceding decisions, rather than only the size of a change at that meeting.
