Steve Kornacki, NBC News’ chief data analyst, said Kansas may be worth watching for polling discrepancies as U.S. pollsters report more responses from Democrats than Republicans, a gap he said could affect the final results.
On NBC’s Today on Tuesday, Kornacki said survey firms adjust their weighting to account for uneven participation, but the response gap may still influence the outcome. Kornacki said the response gap left open a “wild card possibility” for the final results.
Kornacki cited Iowa and Ohio as Midwestern examples where polls during the Trump era missed Republican and pro-Trump voters. He also identified Kansas as a state to monitor for polling discrepancies.
The Independent said recent polling and past midterm outcomes have favored Democrats. It cited a national NBC News poll that put Democrats ahead 52%-43% on the generic congressional ballot. According to The Independent, the president’s party gained seats in only two midterm elections after World War II.
New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn, writing about Times/Siena polls, said registered white Democrats responded to the final battleground surveys at a rate about 30% higher than registered white Republicans. He said the gap was wider than in the final polls in 2020.
