Lloyds Bank: US Payrolls Preview

Quotes from Lloyds Bank

• US payrolls are forecast to grow by more than 200k in February for the 12th successive month. Our forecast is for a 245k rise, less than last month but still more than sufficient to continue to push unemployment lower.The unemployment rate is forecast to fall back to its post-recession low of 5.6%, after a modest rise last month that was due to increased labour market participation.
• The monthly earnings data are less reliable than other wage measures but receives plenty of attention because it is timelier.
• It rose sharply in January after disappointing in December. A further rise in February would be an indication that wages are starting to move up.
• Walmart's recent announcement that it is boosting wages is anecdotal evidence of emerging pressures and certainly this is something that the Fed will be watching closely.