The minutes will be the most important release in the week ahead. After keeping the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25% and changing the convergence of inflation to the "relevant horizon for monetary policy" instead of the end of 2016, markets will try to get more information regarding the aforementioned "horizon."
"We think that it will be a soft commitment as the direction of the economic activity and debt dynamics does not allow them to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. As such, we think that recent developments are supportive to our trade recommendations of being long USDBRL via options and and a NTN-F curve steepener, as some hikes are priced in the months to come and fiscal risk premia high is poised to remain high amid a lack of political certainty, states Barclays.
