Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race tests Republican hopes in a state where the party has not won a Senate contest since 2002, while October polls keep Democrat Peggy Flanagan ahead.
Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) nominee and Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is running against Republican Michele Tafoya for the seat held by U.S. Sen. Tina Smith. Smith announced she would not seek re-election in 2026 and said the decision was personal.
Flanagan led 47% to Tafoya’s 43% in a Mason-Dixon survey for the Minnesota Star Tribune and KARE 11; 9% of respondents were undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 5-7 and gave a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. A separate KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 8-12, put Flanagan at 45% and Tafoya at 42%.
KSTP/SurveyUSA’s earlier polls had Flanagan ahead 46%-41% in August, then tied the candidates 42%-42% in September. The series charts a changing lead but does not establish what caused it.
Fraud oversight has become a campaign issue. At an Oct. 16 debate, Tafoya challenged Flanagan’s accountability as a senior member of Gov. Tim Walz’s administration, saying, “My goodness, she was second in charge in this state,” MPR News reported. Flanagan told CBS Minnesota, “I have supported the independent Office of Inspector General.”
Minnesota’s Office of the Legislative Auditor found that inadequate oversight by the state Department of Education created opportunities for fraud in the Feeding Our Future case. The auditor’s report said federal prosecutors charged 70 people between September 2022 and February 2024 over suspected roles in an alleged $250 million scheme involving federally funded child-nutrition programs. The department disputed the auditor’s assessment. The audit examined the Education Department’s oversight and did not establish that Flanagan personally directed the programs.
Minnesota last sent a Republican to the Senate in 2002, when former U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman received 49.53% of the vote. The Associated Press identifies former Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s 2006 re-election as the most recent Republican victory in a statewide contest. Voters will decide the Senate race on Nov. 3.
