Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported strong third-quarter results and a fourth-quarter revenue forecast above its latest quarterly level, while a separate 2030 valuation case relies on assumptions the chipmaker has not endorsed.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, TSMC recorded revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion, or $46.72 billion in its U.S.-dollar presentation. Revenue increased 50.9% year over year in New Taiwan dollars and 41.2% in U.S. dollars. Net income rose 68.7% to NT$763.06 billion.
The company forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. At the midpoint, that would be 14% above the third quarter and 58% above the year-earlier period. TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said full-year 2026 revenue was expected to grow about 44% year over year in U.S.-dollar terms.
The $6.5 trillion figure comes from a model by The Motley Fool contributor Keithen Drury. He projected 2030 revenue of $518 billion and profit of $259 billion, assuming annual revenue growth of 35% through that year, a 50% profit margin and a valuation of 25 times earnings. TSMC has not announced those figures as targets. Drury disclosed that he owned TSMC shares, and The Motley Fool disclosed that it held and recommended the stock.
The 50% margin assumption is close to TSMC's reported 51.1% net profit margin in the third quarter, but above its 45.1% margin for full-year 2025. TSMC has linked demand for its chips to AI accelerators, agentic-AI CPUs and networking chips.
To meet demand, TSMC reiterated its 2026 capital budget of $60 billion to $64 billion and said spending in 2026–2028 would be significantly higher than in the preceding three years. CFO Wendell Huang attributed margin dilution to the 2-nanometer ramp and overseas fabs. The company expects overseas fabs to reduce gross margin by about 2% in 2026 and 3% to 4% in following years.
Wei said rising component prices and economic uncertainty were affecting consumer and price-sensitive markets as the company planned for 2027. “We are being prudent in our business planning going into 2027,” he said.
TSMC's financial calendar schedules the release of October sales for Nov. 10 at 12:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. UTC; 1:30 p.m. in Taiwan). The company says scheduled dates may change.
