The National Hurricane Center (NHC) raised Halifax's forecast chance of sustained winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h) to 80% Thursday, with similarly high probabilities for communities in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States.
The No. 4 bulletin, issued at 11 a.m. ET (15:00 UTC) Thursday, Oct. 22, gave Yarmouth a 93% probability and put Sable Island, Hyannis and Nantucket at 99% each. The estimates refer to one-minute-average sustained winds at or above 39 mph (63 km/h).
Halifax's estimate increased from 16% in bulletin No. 2 to 41% in No. 3 and 80% in No. 4. Yarmouth's went from 34% to 56% and 93%, while Sable Island's rose from 88% to 95% and 99%. The five-day windows began at 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC, respectively. Because each update used a new window, these figures are forecast chances, not reports of winds recorded at those locations.
At the time of the No. 4 bulletin, Josephine's center was near 39.2°N, 67.3°W, with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph; 100 km/h). At Sable Island, the NHC put the chance of one-minute-average sustained winds of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) at 59%, and of at least 74 mph (119 km/h) at 8%.
At 5 p.m. ET (21:00 UTC), the NHC classified Josephine as post-tropical, reporting sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) as the storm moved northeast at 17 mph (28 km/h). The agency said it was issuing its final advisory; EconoTimes previously covered the post-tropical classification and end of advisories. The No. 4 probability table extended through 8 a.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 27 (1200 UTC).
