The National Hurricane Center's wind-probability product for Tropical Storm Vance estimates the likelihood of threshold winds at selected locations, helping distinguish local wind exposure from the storm center's forecast path.
The product gives estimates for winds of 34 knots, the tropical-storm-force threshold, as well as 50 knots and 64 knots, the hurricane-force threshold. It accounts for uncertainty in Vance's track, intensity and size, and provides figures for listed locations and forecast positions in tables and graphics.
The forecast cone represents possible paths for the storm's center, but winds can extend beyond it. To build the cone, the NHC places circles along projected center positions over five days, sizing them using official forecast errors from the previous five years. The agency's historical data show the center has remained inside the five-day cone in about 60% to 70% of cases.
The NHC's location-based estimates were also covered in an earlier EconoTimes report on Manzanillo's wind probabilities.
