The National Retail Federation projects U.S. retail sales will total $1.013 trillion over November and December 2026, a 4.2% increase from the same two-month period in 2025.
The federation released its forecast Oct. 15. It reported 2025 holiday sales of $972 billion, an increase of 3.1%.
The NRF estimate covers November and December. Deloitte's separate forecast puts U.S. holiday retail sales at $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion for November 2026 through January 2027, a longer period, as covered in EconoTimes' earlier holiday spending report.
