After recording a surplus in the first two months of the year, New Zealand non-seasonally adjusted trade balance (23.45 BST Tuesday) probably swung back into deficit in March, to the tune of around $100m.
After seasonal adjustment, the deterioration should be even larger, from a deficit of $377m in February to around $700m in March.
Capital Economics said - "We expect that the lagged effect of the previous decline in dairy prices will contribute to an outright fall in seasonally-adjusted export values."
Meanwhile, despite a price-related drop in oil imports, overall imports probably rose.
