As voters approach the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, forecaster Nate Silver raised Democrats’ chance of winning the Senate to 79%, four percentage points above his earlier estimate and higher than prediction-market estimates.
Silver gave the updated figure during an appearance on The Argument’s YouTube show. He said it was somewhat above market estimates and that he felt reasonably confident in the number.
On X, Silver pointed to a recent run of favorable surveys in Democratic Senate contests as the reason for the change. He also noted that polls can miss and that forecasts and markets account for uncertainty.
In a Substack post, Silver cautioned that polling error could change the picture in Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine. He described Democrats’ leads there as “all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping.”
The revision builds on earlier EconoTimes coverage of Silver’s FLIPR forecast, which gave Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate, compared with Polymarket’s two-thirds estimate. That article said Silver viewed the difference as noticeable but not a major disagreement. It described FLIPR as a daily projection using rules set months earlier.
The Independent reported that Silver also sees Democrats as favored to regain the House. CNN analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that he projected Democrats to win 223 House seats, above the 218 needed for control, The Independent reported.
The Independent characterized the elections as a test of the Trump administration’s record after nearly two years in office. It said a Democratic win in both chambers could narrow Trump’s room to pursue legislation and give Democrats greater ability to investigate his administration.
The outlet also tied Republican vulnerabilities to Trump’s falling approval, the war in Iran and cost-of-living pressures. It said about 40 million Americans had voted by the time of its Friday report. The Nov. 3 elections will determine whether polling translates into a change in control of either chamber.
