A final New York Times-Siena poll showed Democrats ahead in six Republican-held Senate contests and Michigan, putting seven races tied to Senate control in focus before Tuesday’s midterm vote.
Released Nov. 1 by the Siena Research Institute (SRI) in partnership with The New York Times, the survey covered Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The six Republican-held seats were in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas; Michigan’s seat is held by a Democrat.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers 53% to 42%. EconoTimes previously covered a CBS News assessment that found no clear favorite in the Michigan race.
James Talarico led Ken Paxton 50% to 43% in Texas, Troy Jackson led Susan Collins 51% to 45% in Maine, and Adam Hamilton led Roger Marshall 49% to 44% in Kansas, where David Graham had 4%. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown led Jon Husted 49% to 44%. The margins of sampling error were 3.8 points in Michigan, 3.4 in Texas, 4.7 in Maine, and 4.4 in Kansas and Ohio.
The closer contests were in Alaska and Iowa. Mary Peltola led Dan Sullivan 48% to 46% in Alaska, where the margin of sampling error was 5.0 points; Josh Turek led Ashley Hinson 48% to 47% in Iowa, where it was 4.7 points. Both leads fell within the poll’s stated margins of sampling error.
The Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving the Democratic-aligned group 47 seats. It would need four net gains to reach 51. Because Michigan is already held by a Democrat, winning all seven surveyed races would produce six pickups from Republicans; the Democratic-aligned group would reach 53 seats if no other seats changed hands.
SRI Executive Director Don Levy said uncertainty across several contests left control of the Senate unresolved. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) lists the federal general election for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
