Poland’s industrial production and retail sales data came in disappointed in April. Headline industrial output dropped 0.6 percent year-on-year, as compared with expectations of 1.9 percent growth. On a seasonally adjusted basis, output dropped 1.2 percent sequentially in April after growing 2.1 percent in March. However, the data were subject to distortions due to shifting Easter. Thus, seasonal adjustment was slightly unreliable in March and April.
This shows that the manufacturing sector in Poland accelerated markedly in the past quarter as compared with a much shallower trend in the earlier two years. This acceleration matches trends seen in Germany. However, the April data tells that there are threats to extrapolating such as powerful trend too far into the future, noted Commerzbank.
The economic growth of Poland might still stay solid; however, the acceleration of the first quarter might not repeat. Retail sales data also paints that scenario. Polish PPI inflation moderated more than anticipated, indicating a lack of inflationary pressure too.
“The NBP will therefore maintain an ultra-easy monetary stance as a result of which we see EUR/PLN rising over coming months”, added Commerzbank.
