The National Hurricane Center (NHC) put Manzanillo, Mexico’s five-day chance of sustained winds reaching at least 39 mph at 45% in its Friday update on Hurricane Vance, with lower probabilities for stronger winds.
The update, issued at 5 p.m. ET Friday, Oct. 23 (21:00 UTC), placed Vance’s maximum sustained winds near 90 knots (105 mph, or 165 km/h). The storm’s center was near 11.2 degrees north and 102.3 degrees west.
For Manzanillo, the NHC estimated a 15% chance of sustained winds reaching at least 58 mph and a 4% chance of reaching at least 74 mph. The thresholds correspond to one-minute-average sustained winds.
The table gives cumulative probabilities through 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, Oct. 28. They describe the chance of winds reaching each threshold during the forecast period, rather than conditions measured in Manzanillo now. At the 39 mph threshold, the table also gave Zihuatanejo a 26% chance and Acapulco a 6% chance.
