The National Hurricane Center (NHC) put Manzanillo, Mexico’s five-day chance of sustained winds reaching 39 mph at 28% Saturday, down from 45% in Friday’s forecast.
The NHC bulletin placed Hurricane Vance’s center near 13.3 degrees north and 103.3 degrees west, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (150 km/h). The previous day’s bulletin listed winds of 105 mph and placed the storm near 11.2 degrees north and 102.3 degrees west.
For Manzanillo, the forecast gives a 5% cumulative probability of one-minute average sustained winds reaching 58 mph (93 km/h) and a 1% chance of reaching 74 mph (119 km/h). The forecast period runs through 2 p.m. ET Thursday, Oct. 29 (18:00 UTC).
These are cumulative probabilities: the chance that winds reach each threshold at least once during the forecast window. They describe forecast conditions, not current wind readings in the city.
