EURUSD lost its shine due to German political uncertainty. It hits a low of 1.06531 and is currently trading around 1.06586.
Recent political developments in Germany, especially after Donald Trump's election victory, have increased risks that could affect the Euro (EUR) and the European economy. Tensions within the ruling coalition have escalated, leading to concerns about government instability, particularly after Finance Minister Christian Lindner's economic reform proposals were leaked. Following Lindner's firing on November 6, 2024, snap elections are becoming more likely, with Chancellor Scholz calling for a motion of confidence for January 15, 2025. Trump's presidency may also introduce unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, impacting Germany's economic relationships. This political uncertainty is expected to negatively affect market sentiment about the Euro, leading to a potential depreciation of the currency as investor confidence declines. Overall, the combination of internal strife and external pressures poses challenges for the Eurozone.
Technical Analysis Overview
The pair remained below both short-term (34 and 55-4H EMA) and long-term (200-4H MA) moving averages.
Resistance Levels: Near-term resistance is at 1.0700. A breakout above this could push the pair towards targets at 1.0760/$1.0835, and possibly 1.0900. Major bullish momentum is expected only if prices surpass 1.1000, which would open the door to 1.1070 and 1.1150.
Support Levels: Immediate support is at 1.06500. A drop below this could lead to further declines to 1.0600/ 1.0500.
Indicator Insights (4-Hour Chart): The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicates a bearish trend, while the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) suggests a bearish outlook.
Trading Strategy
Given the weak sentiment in technical indicators, a sensible strategy would be to sell on rallies around the 1.0700 mark, with a stop-loss at 1.0760 and a target price of 1.0500 for potential gains.
