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Near-term UK inflation to remain subdued

UK inflation data for July is released this morning. The inflation data caused the analysts to revise their forecasting for many indicators. "These upward revisions are partially offset by lower oil price assumptions sin…

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UK inflation data for July is released this morning. The inflation data caused the analysts to revise their forecasting for many indicators.

"These upward revisions are partially offset by lower oil price assumptions since our last forecast update on 14 July as oil futures have cheapened. Net, this leaves their CPI projection for 2015 0.1pp higher at 0.1% and 2016 projection unchanged at 1.5%. For RPI, the 2015 forecast moves up 0.1pp to 1% and 2016 forecast is unchanged at 2.4%", estimates Barclays.

The bank also revised their RPI/CPI basis projection for 2015 up slightly to reflect marginally higher house price assumptions than previously.

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