Toronto’s mayoral polls offer conflicting snapshots ahead of the Oct. 26 vote: Global News reported a new Pollara survey favoring Mayor Olivia Chow, while releases from two other firms put challenger Brad Bradford ahead.
Global News said Chow received 55% and Bradford 44% among voters who had made a choice in a Pollara Strategic Insights survey. Fieldwork ran Oct. 16-21 and covered 1,094 Toronto residents eligible to vote and at least 18 years old. Pollara collected 697 responses through an online panel and 397 in live telephone interviews; it adjusted results for age, gender and region.
Global News reported that 26% of respondents had already voted in advance polls and were asked how they voted. The outlet said CUPE Local 416 commissioned the survey; the union endorsed Chow on Oct. 1.
A separate Pollara release on Oct. 20 gave Chow a 53%-46% advantage over Bradford among decided voters. Liaison Strategies’ Oct. 21 release put Bradford at 49% and Chow at 47% among decided and leaning voters. Liaison’s Oct. 18-19 survey covered 1,000 Toronto residents through interactive voice response telephone calls. Mainstreet Research reported 48.9% for Bradford and 47.5% for Chow in an Oct. 20 release, without specifying the voter group behind those percentages.
Pollara and Liaison reported results for different voter groups and used different methods. Mainstreet’s release did not identify the denominator for its figures, making a like-for-like comparison across all three polls difficult. David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said in the firm’s release, “The order has changed, but this is not a result either campaign can treat as a clear lead.”
The results add to the recent Toronto polling split.
Toronto’s city government certified Chow’s victory in the 2023 mayoral by-election. Voters will choose a mayor in the municipal election on Monday, Oct. 26.
