The New Zealand dollar logged three consecutive declines in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s daily observations through Nov. 13, as U.S. inflation and a Fed governor’s comments put December interest-rate choices in view.
The RBNZ recorded the exchange rate at 0.55695 on Nov. 9, then 0.56285 on Nov. 10. It fell to 0.56060 on Nov. 11, 0.55615 on Nov. 12 and 0.55395 on Nov. 13.
An FXStreet update placed NZD/USD at 0.5536 after it reached 0.5527 at 7:24 a.m. ET (12:24 UTC) Friday. The outlet characterized that intraday low as the pair’s lowest level in 19 months. The RBNZ does not publish an observation time for its Nov. 13 daily figure.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. Before the release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said a core reading around 0.3% or higher would make a 50-basis-point December increase worth considering. He described that as his personal assessment, which might not reflect other policymakers’ views.
CME Group’s Nov. 11 FedWatch snapshot assigned an 86.9% probability to a 25-basis-point December increase and a 13.1% probability to a 50-basis-point move.
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, with two members favoring a quarter-point increase. That day, the RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate at 2.75% in a 4-3 vote; three members favored raising it by a quarter point. The committee said any further tightening would depend on how the economic outlook evolves.
The RBNZ’s next Survey of Expectations is scheduled for Nov. 17. Its next policy announcement is due Dec. 9, during the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 8-9 meeting.
