New Zealand Q3 consumer price index to increase in September

An increase of just 0.1% is expected in the September quarter CPI. This would take annual inflation down to a new low of 0.2%, which mark the ultimate low point for this cycle. Government charges will have a significant impact this quarter. A steep drop in vehicle registration fees will alone reduce inflation by around 0.3 percentage points. 

"Our forecast is below the Reserve Bank's estimate of 0.3% for the quarter", says Westpac Research.

However, it would take a significantly weaker result to prompt a fourth consecutive OCR cut at the October 29 review, given the rapidly improving outlook for dairy prices.