Next two weeks are key for Greece

The Greek government will likely find the cash to make two coming payments to the IMF totalling c.EUR 950mn. The first payment is due on 6 May and the second payment on 12 May, one day after an official Eurogroup meeting. 

However, Greece has exhausted most reserves and is unlikely to be able to meet IMF payments due in June of c.EUR 1.5bn. That said, a missed payment to the IMF will not necessarily trigger a wider default or an exit from the monetary union. 

The responses from the European partners and particularly the European Central Bank (ECB) will be key in this scenario. 

Greece's Prime Minister Tsipras showed signs of willingness to compromise with the rearrangement of the team that negotiates with the institutions, adding that in case of an impasse, a referendum is likely