No CAD Boost from In-Line January CPI — Bears Eye 110 Breakdown

After stable Canadian CPI figures, CAD/JPY fell modestly. Now trading around 112.13, it reached an intraday low of 112.18.

Published on February 17, 2026 (deferred from the 16th), Canada's CPI statistics for January 2026 matched consensus predictions with headline inflation fixed at 2.4% year-over-year, the same as that of December 2025's strong figure, fueled by base effects from past-year tax holidays on food and goods. Three- and six-month averages are currently at or below 2%, indicating lower underlying pressures amid cooling housing (2.1%) and services inflation, whereas food prices stayed strong at approximately 6.2%, core metrics like CPI-median and CPI-trim kept their easing toward the Bank of Canada's 2% target. Monthly CPI increased 0.1% as expected, which supports the BoC's stable 2.25% policy rate forecast ahead of the March 18 decision, while the CAD saw subdued reaction in early trade.

Technical Analysis

CAD/JPY is currently trading below the 34- and 55-EMA  and below 200 EMA and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart. The immediate resistance is at 112.65; a breach above that level could shift targets to 113/113.30/114/115. On the lower side, near-term support is at 111.80, and a break below this support could lead to declines toward  111/110.50/110/109.50/109.

Indicator Trends

 CCI (50)- Bearish

ADX (14)-  Neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 112.48-50 with a stop-loss at 113.30 for a target price of 110.