Norwegian oil investment likely to grow strongly in 2019, shows survey

The first quarter Norwegian oil investment indicates towards strong growth in oil investment in 2019 and a bit on the solid side to Norges Bank. The first quarter oil investment survey’s 2019 figure was downwardly revised to NOK 172.7 billion from NOK 175.3 billion. This was anticipated as investment in exploration is normally downwardly revised in the first quarter. The 2019 figure is 14 percent over the final 2018 figure.

The central bank projects growth of 10.5 percent. There would be revision after this, but they can go both ways, noted Nordea Bank in a research report. Statistics Norway cites new field developments still not in the survey that will give activity in 2019. Norges Bank might revise up its forecast for 2019 slightly.

The first figure for 2020 is NOK 158.5. This will surely be upwardly revised since there is a lot of known new field development not yet covered by the survey, said Nordea Bank.

“That the figure for exploration seems far too high will dampen the upward revision, but our first impression is that there should be no need for a major revision to Norges Bank forecast for growth at 3 percent in 2020”, added Nordea Bank.