Norwegian retail sales fall sequentially in May, but trend points upwards

Norwegian retail sales dropped in the month of May; however, the trend appears to have picked up. Sequentially, retail sales fell 1.3 percent after rising 1.8 percent in April. Consensus expectations were for retail sales to come in at -0.9 percent.

In spite of the drop, the trend in retail sales so far this year indicates upwards following a soft second part of 2018. This is very much consistent with Norges Bank’s view. Real wages are increasing at healthy rate and so is employment contributing to a current solid growth in spending power. Increased interest is in no way changing that picture.

“We view today’s figure as very much in line with Norges Bank’s picture. Yesterday’s April LFS unemployment figure however was if anything on the strong side”, said Nordea Bank.

LFS unemployment fell to 3.2 percent. Norges Banks average 2019 forecast for LFS unemployment is 3.5 percent and 2020 is 3.3 percent. However, there is too much noise in LFS unemployment to take the monthly figures seriously, added Nordea Bank.