Norwegian retail sales recovered in March. Consumption figures appear to be consistent with the central bank’s views. Sequentially, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in March, coming in line with the consensus expectations. However, the trend in retail sales is soft.
Retail sales do not cover car sales and to compare today’s figure with the central bank’s forecast it is better to look at the consumption for goods indicator which cover cars, said Nordea Bank in a research report. Consumption for goods indicator rose 1.9 percent sequentially, aided by a solid rise in car sales. Consumption of goods in the first quarter was 0.8 percent above the fourth quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, grown at 0.8 percent appears to be on the higher side to Norges Bank’s forecast of a total growth in private consumption at 1.9 percent year-on-year in 2019. However, car sales are volatile and might correct in the months ahead.
“We think Norges Bank will conclude that consumption seems to develop as expected. Even excluding cars the consumption of goods indicator shows healthy growth in Q1”, said Nordea Bank.
Meanwhile, jobless rate remained the same at 3.8 percent in February, according to LFS. This is slightly on the upside to Norges Bank’s forecast at 3.6 percent.
