OCBC Raises Gold Price Forecast to $5,600 as Structural Demand and Uncertainty Persist

OCBC Bank has revised its gold price forecast higher, projecting that bullion could reach $5,600 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from its earlier estimate of $4,800 per ounce. The updated outlook reflects the bank’s assessment of recent strong price performance and ongoing structural demand for gold, rather than a change in its core market assumptions. Gold prices have already climbed around 17% so far in 2026, remaining elevated despite periods of short-term correction, highlighting the strength of the current uptrend.

According to OCBC, the rally in gold prices is no longer being driven primarily by isolated risk events or short-lived market shocks. Instead, gold is benefiting from a broader and more persistent environment of uncertainty that encourages investors to diversify into non-sovereign assets. The bank noted that traditional macroeconomic and financial factors such as bond yields, the US dollar, ETF flows, market volatility, and policy uncertainty do not fully explain current gold prices.

OCBC’s analysis points to the existence of a sustained pricing premium in the gold market, suggesting that a significant geopolitical and uncertainty-driven component is now embedded in valuations. This premium appears to be linked less to cyclical economic forces and more to long-term concerns, including geopolitical tensions, unpredictable policy environments, and questions around confidence in the US dollar. These factors have collectively reinforced gold’s appeal as a store of value and a hedge against systemic risk.

The bank emphasized that the fundamental drivers behind the gold uptrend remain largely unchanged. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to act as a structural source of support rather than an episodic catalyst. In addition, monetary conditions remain an important pillar underpinning gold prices, particularly as investors weigh interest rate trajectories and broader liquidity trends. OCBC also highlighted the ongoing role of official sector purchases and exchange-traded fund demand, which continue to provide a solid anchor for the gold market.

With these forces in play, OCBC believes gold is likely to remain well supported over the medium to long term, reinforcing its upwardly revised price target and its constructive outlook on the precious metal through 2026.