OPEC+ Expected to Hold November Oil Output Quotas Steady

OPEC+ is expected to keep oil production quotas unchanged for November as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt crude supplies from several major producers, according to Bloomberg.

Seven key members of the oil alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reached a preliminary agreement to maintain their existing production targets. Delegates said the decision is expected to be finalized during a video conference on Sunday.

Keeping quotas steady would align with the group’s current production strategy. OPEC+ previously indicated that additional increases in output targets would be paused through the end of 2026.

Global oil prices have moved back toward $100 per barrel as the Iran war constrains supplies from the Persian Gulf. Brent crude recently traded above $102 a barrel, while diesel prices have also climbed to record levels at the pump.

The supply crunch has prompted Group of Seven countries to announce plans to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency crude oil and diesel reserves in an effort to ease pressure on energy markets.

OPEC+ approved several modest production quota increases during the six months through August, theoretically reversing some of the supply cuts introduced in 2023. However, those changes have had a limited effect on actual global oil supplies.

The Middle East conflict has pushed production from major OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, significantly below pre-war levels. As a result, changes to official OPEC+ quotas currently have less influence on physical supply than under normal market conditions.

Gulf producers could regain greater flexibility to raise actual output if regional tensions ease and disrupted infrastructure and export routes return to normal.

OPEC+ is also expected to turn its attention to another tranche of production capacity that has remained offline since 2022. Decisions on restoring those barrels will depend partly on an assessment of individual members’ production capacity, which could shape how future quotas are allocated.

OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet on November 29 to determine the alliance’s oil production policy for 2027.