Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) has reportedly lifted its Brent year-end targets, Bernama and FXStreet reported, as global oil inventories remain far below late-February levels despite a September rebound in Gulf exports.
Both outlets said a Nov. 2 OCBC research note set Brent at $100 a barrel for end-2026, compared with $85 previously, and $85 for end-2027, up from $75. In public October commentary, OCBC had raised its end-2026 estimate to $85 from $80, saying prices might ease as Middle East export flows returned, though it expected any pullback to be choppy.
September Gulf crude exports had reached 13.9 million barrels per day, more than 75% of prewar volumes, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. At the end of that month, observed global oil inventories were 509 million barrels below the level at the end of February. Middle Eastern shipments of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas had yet to recover to half of their prewar volumes. The IEA cautions that shipping readings can understate traffic because some vessels have switched off transponders.
Record tanker prices and elevated crude bills left processing plants in Europe and Asia with narrower margins, according to the IEA. The agency expects a global oil-market deficit through year-end and tight middle-distillate supplies well into 2027.
In a separate point FXStreet attributed to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, U.S. crude may need a steeper discount in Europe if shipping costs widen the price gap with Brent.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected Brent would average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 in 2027 in its October outlook. Those are period averages, unlike OCBC's reported year-end targets. The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for Nov. 10.
