Oil Prices Climb Amid U.S. Output Concerns and Anticipated Crude Inventory Drop

On September 17, oil prices continued to rise as the market assessed concerns regarding U.S. output in the wake of Hurricane Francine and anticipated a decrease in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent Crude Futures Rise to $73.11 as U.S. Output Concerns Offset Chinese Demand Worries

The price of Brent crude futures for November was $73.11 per barrel, up 36 cents or 0.5%, as of 0635 GMT. U.S. oil futures for October increased by 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.62 per barrel.

The previous session saw both contracts settle higher as Hurricane Francine's impact on oil output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico countered Chinese demand concerns in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision this week. This decision is expected to impact oil investor sentiment positively.

On September 16, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported that over 12% of crude and 16% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were inactive.

"Oil prices managed to recover slightly ... (An) extreme bearish state over the past weeks called for some near-term stabilisation, with prices previously touching their lowest level since 2021," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

"But a weaker-than-expected run in China's economic data lately could still be a source of caution, while the lead-up to the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision may limit some risk-taking," Yeap added, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Oil Market Sentiment as U.S. Crude Inventories Decline

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate its easing cycle on September 18. Fed funds futures indicate that markets are currently pricing in a 69% likelihood that the central bank will reduce rates by 50 basis points.

"Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut boosted sentiment across the commodities complex," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that supply disruptions also supported oil markets.

A decrease in the interest rate will decrease the cost of borrowing and potentially increase oil demand by fostering economic growth.

According to a Reuters poll, investors also anticipated a decrease in U.S. crude inventories, which are expected to decrease by approximately 200,000 barrels during the week ending September 13.

Nevertheless, China, the world's largest crude importer, has experienced lower-than-anticipated demand growth, restricting price increases. In August, China's oil refinery output decreased for the fifth consecutive month due to lackluster export margins and declining fuel demand, according to government data released on September 14.