Oil Prices Head for 21% Monthly Surge as Middle East Conflict Fuels Supply Fears

Oil prices edged higher during Asian trading on Friday and remained on track for their strongest monthly performance since March, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran fueled concerns over prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies.

Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 0.7% to $89.64 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.6% to $84.06 per barrel as of 00:12 GMT. Despite the gains, both benchmarks were still heading for a weekly decline of nearly 7% after optimism surrounding possible peace talks earlier in the week briefly pressured prices.

For July, however, Brent and WTI were set to post gains of roughly 21%, reflecting growing geopolitical risks across the Middle East.

Market sentiment turned more cautious after renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets triggered retaliatory missile attacks by Iran against U.S. positions and regional allies. Investors also reacted to the widening conflict after an unidentified drone struck gas vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port near the Suez Canal, igniting fires and raising concerns over another key global energy shipping route.

The attack intensified fears over disruptions to crude and fuel shipments through the Suez Canal and the nearby SUMED pipeline, both critical corridors linking Middle Eastern oil exports to Europe. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants have increased threats against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, while Iran continues to tighten its control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing shipping companies to reassess transit routes.

Saudi Arabia has also held discussions with representatives from 43 countries on creating a maritime coalition to help secure shipping lanes in and around the Red Sea following the recent Houthi blockade.

Oil prices also found support from tightening fuel supplies after attacks on refineries across the Middle East and Russia kept gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel refining margins near record highs.

Adding to the bullish outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels in the week ended July 24, pushing stockpiles to their lowest level since 2018 and reinforcing expectations of tighter global oil supplies.