Oil in Global Economy Series: Iraq continues to cheat OPEC agreement more than any other country

Data from OPEC’s monthly oil market report shows that Iraq remains the biggest cheater within OPEC when it comes to complying with the agreement. The chart, which is based on production data from secondary sources for the nine months till September clearly shows that Iraq remains the biggest cheater.

Observation:

• On an average, Iraq produced almost 100,000 barrels per day more than the stimulated target. We expect Iraq’s low compliance issue to be raised at the November OPEC meeting when members and other non-participating countries will meet on 30th to decide on the future of the agreement.
   
• Saudi Arabia has not only shared the biggest burden of cuts. It remains the most over-compliant country in the group. It produced an average of 116,000 barrels per day less than the stipulated target.
   
• Only four countries (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Angola) out of 11 OPEC members are in compliance with the agreed production levels for the first 9 months.

WTI is currently trading at $50.9 per barrel and Brent at $5.6 per barrel premium to WTI.

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