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Both OPEC and N-OPEC participating members are set to meet in Vienna tomorrow to decide on the future of the production agreement that aims to reduce production by 1.76 million barrels per day compared to the November 2015 level. While de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia voiced its support for an extension of the agreement, its key non-OPEC partner Russia has refused to reveal its stance like the last time. As a matter of fact, earlier this month, Russian economy minister has voiced concerns against extending the agreement. According to economy minister Maxim Oreshkin, Russia’s economic growth was negatively affected in the month of October due to the country’s participation in the agreement. This is the first time a senior Russian official has spoken against the agreement since it was commenced in November 2015. The comments from the minister came after data showed that the economic growth slowed down to 1.8 percent in the third quarter after growing 2.5 percent in the second quarter. According to Mr. Oreshkin, the OPEC agreement is exerting direct pressure on the economy by curbing oil output and affecting it indirectly as the quota system restricts investments.
According to insiders, despite its best efforts, Saudi Arabia has yet to convince Russia to commit to extending the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement through the end of 2018, injecting some uncertainty ahead of Thursday's closely watched meeting in Vienna. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak has said he would prefer to wait until closer to the deal's March expiry to announce any decisions.
In addition to that, Russia is reportedly concerned on pushing oil prices too high so much so that it incentivizes U.S. shale producers to increase production rapidly. Moreover, unlike Saudi Arabia, Russia’s budget requires oil price above $40 per barrel, while it’s above $70 per barrel for Saudi Arabia.
WTI is currently trading at $57.9 per barrel and Brent at $63.8 per barrel.
