An election market can make a correct call in one contest without showing that its pricing method will work consistently elsewhere. A single result measures one forecast against one outcome; assessing broader reliability requires results from multiple elections.
Prices need timestamps for a separate reason. The live quote may not match the market's latest completed trade, which records an earlier transaction. Comparing the two without noting when they were observed can misstate what traders could see at a given point.
A past comparison found polling estimates performed better after adjustments for Election Day outcomes. But it examined specific methods and historical samples, so it does not establish that polls or election markets consistently forecast better. Whether the market favorite wins or loses, the outcome adds just one entry to a broader record.
