Orders for US Durable Goods Point Resilience

Published on August 26, 2025, the US durable goods orders report for July 2025 showed a 2.8% decrease to $302.8 billion, a less pronounced drop. more than economists' predicted 4.0% decline. This is the third drop in four months, following a more dramatic 9.4% June fall. The softer-than-anticipated recession points to a slowing demand for long-lasting manufactured goods, therefore presenting a rather positive outlook for the US manufacturing sector.

Excluding the erratic transportation sector, orders for durable goods rose by 1.1%, beating expectations of a modest 0.2% increase, spurred by significant increases in electrical equipment, machines, and basic metals. Orders for transportation equipment, though, plummeted by 9.7%, mostly as a result of poor commercial aircraft bookings, therefore dragging down overall results. Eight straight months of gains in shipments of durable goods, which rose 1.4%, with those for transportation equipment up 2.3%, point to continuing activity in major sectors.

The data suggest underlying strength in commercial investment, especially in core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defense), which increased 1.1% and shipments that increased 0.7%, suggesting a strong beginning for the third quarter. Although instability in aircraft orders still worries many, the resilience in non-transportation industries and steady shipping expansion offers a relatively good signal for the country. Reflecting a manufacturing industry that is leveling despite difficulties, economy and the USD.