Ukraine Agrees to Protect Kazakhstan Oil Exports via Black Sea

Ukraine has reportedly agreed not to attack certain non-Russian oil tankers and infrastructure involved in exporting Kazakhstan crude oil through the Black Sea, a move that could help stabilize supplies from one of the region’s most important export routes.

Bloomberg reported that the commitment followed discussions between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials, citing a U.S. official familiar with the private agreement. The arrangement is aimed at improving security around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, Russia, after recent drone attacks disrupted oil shipments.

Under the agreement, Ukraine will avoid targeting CPC infrastructure and vessels heading to the terminal as long as they meet specific conditions. Eligible tankers must not be sanctioned by Ukraine, transport Russian cargo, or be owned by Russian individuals or companies.

Ukraine has also established contact points that allow commercial shipping companies to provide vessel information and coordinate safe passage. Ukrainian authorities are reportedly advising operators about which vessels may face potential targeting risks.

The CPC pipeline is Kazakhstan’s primary crude oil export route and normally carries about 2% of global oil supplies. Its importance extends beyond Kazakhstan, as European refiners are major buyers of CPC Blend crude shipped from the Black Sea terminal.

Recent attacks around Novorossiysk have created significant disruption. Some shipowners temporarily avoided the terminal, while vessels chartered by U.S. companies stopped loading during attacks in the week of July 20. Operations restarted on July 27, but ships near the terminal were reportedly struck again two days later.

CPC Blend exports are expected to decline by approximately one-third in August, although delayed July shipments could affect the final figures.

Security concerns have also pushed tanker rates sharply higher. Earnings for vessels transporting CPC crude to the Mediterranean surpassed $400,000 per day on Friday, according to Baltic Exchange data, marking a record for the route.

However, uncertainty remains over whether the latest safeguards will convince tanker operators that the route is sufficiently secure. A recovery in Kazakhstan oil exports could ease global crude supply concerns, particularly as the Iran war and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz traffic continue to affect other sources of oil.