The volatility of Polish zloty increased recently by the changing global sentiment. The uncertainty around the CHF mortgages and the ruling of the Polish Supreme Court worried investors. Even if the court decision is not a systemic solution, it might result in high costs for the whole banking sector.
“We think that the impact of local factors is rather short-lived and the zloty is mainly shaped by global sentiment”, noted Erste Group Research.
The market optimism has waned away as the resolution of the trade dispute in the near-term became more unlikely. Meanwhile, a hard Brexit most likely be averted, rebounding the outlook for the euro area.
“All in all, we expect the zloty to remain broadly stable in 2020 and the EUR/PLN should stay close to 4.30, supported by market expectations for a weaker US dollar”, added Erste Group Research.
