The growth impact of US congress' two year budget deal would be that the additional spending could lift GDP growth by just over a quarter percentage point next year.
Beside the positive growth implications, the deal greatly lessens the risk of political uncertainty undercutting the economy for the next two years. This should give the Fed more confidence in its outlook for sustained growth and progress in labour markets.
According to BMO Economics, this tentatvie two year budget deal introduced by Congress could
- Make expected incoming House Speaker Paul Ryan's life a whole lot easier.
- Give Republicans a leg to stand on as responsible economic managers ahead of the November 2016 election.
- The odds of a December rate hike have likely increased modestly, though the recent slowing in the economy suggests it's still a coin flip.


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