Danske Bank notes its expectations on possbile US Fed rate hikes in Sept as follows... Following the FOMC meeting last week, we pushed our expectations for the first rate 25bp rate hike to September'15 from June'15 (see …
Danske Bank notes its expectations on possbile US Fed rate hikes in Sept as follows...
Following the FOMC meeting last week, we pushed our expectations for the first rate 25bp rate hike to September'15 from June'15 (see Flash Comment: FOMC meeting - Members now project September liftoff ). Weak growth in the past months and the unexpectedly fast appreciation of the USD have increased the uncertainty over the outlook.
FOMC members have in general expressed a preference to err on the side of caution and rather tighten too late than too early. The revisions to the projected Fed funds rate path at the FOMC meeting clearly showed that this remains the case.
This means that the bar for a June rate hike has increased. We will not only need to see strong labour market data but also a rebound in activity data and signs of stabilisation in core inflation or a pickup in wages. This is still not undoable with three months of data left before June but it will be difficult.
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