Return to fairly normal weather conditions could provide a modest lift to US job growth

US climatic conditions are expected to provide a modest lift to net hiring in the July report. At 342, population-weighted cooling degree days were 21 above normal during the reference period.

"However, more detailed data suggest that this result likely reflected warmer-than-normal temperatures experienced during the beginning of the month. At 74.1oF, the mean temperature nationwide over the month-to-date period ended July 18 was 2.8o F above the relevant prior-month span, but just 0.1o F above the norm for that portion of the year", says Societe Generale.

Corresponding precipitation data are unavailable, yet visual inspection suggests that conditions were fairly dry on balance across the continental US over the course of the July establishment canvassing period, after an atypically soggy June. 

The forecast assumes that 37,000 persons could not work because of bad weather in the household survey, matching the average posted over the past ten years.