Riksbank likely to lower rates to -0.45% in February

Sweden's December producer prices dropped 0.7% m/m and 1.9% y/y. Imported consumption goods prices dropped slightly to 3.1% in December from 3.4% in November. However, the year-on-year figures is largely expected to decline noticeably in the following months as the SEK is stronger by 3% now than one year ago. If the currency appreciates noticeably, the deflationary impulses might be even stronger. Riksbank is likely to lower its rates by 10bp to -0.45% in February.