Russia-Ukraine war: UK says Russia likely planning to encircle Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast

The British defense ministry said that Russian forces are likely planning on surrounding the town of Bakhmut in the partially-occupied territory of Donetsk. The ministry noted that the move would mainly be a political objective for Moscow.

The British defense ministry said in its intelligence bulletin Saturday that Russia was looking to encircle the town of Bakhmut, located in the partially-occupied Ukrainian territory of Donetsk. The ministry said that Russian forces were investing a significant amount of military effort around the town, noting that Russia has made small advances on the southern side of the offensive.

“Russia has prioritized Bakhmut as its main offensive effort since August 2022,” the ministry said.

“The capture of the town would have limited operational value although it would potentially allow Russia to threaten the larger urban areas of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. However, the campaign has been disproportionately costly relative to these possible gains. There is a realistic possibility that Bakhmut’s capture has become primarily a symbolic, political objective for Russia,” said the ministry.

On Saturday, the ministry said that according to recent polling, there has been little public support in Russia for the war. The ministry cited an independent Russian media outlet that claimed to have access to data collected by the country’s Federal Protective Service. According to the data, 55 percent of Russians were in support of peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25 percent claiming to support the war.

The results are apparently in line with a separate survey conducted in October, where 57 percent of respondents were in favor of peace talks. Back in April, 80 percent of Russians claimed to support the war that Moscow calls a “special military operation.”

“With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield successes in the next several months, maintaining even tacit approval of the war amongst the population is likely to be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin,” said the ministry.

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron came under fire from Ukraine and Baltic states for suggesting that there would be “security guarantees” for Moscow should it return to negotiations. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said that the world needs security guarantees from Russia rather than the other way around.