Economic growth in Russia slowed down to 0.8% y/y in 2014, from 1.3% in 2013, according to the new preliminary data. Unemployment remains low, climbing to 5.5% in January 2015, from 5.3% a monthearlier. Danske Bank notes…
Economic growth in Russia slowed down to 0.8% y/y in 2014, from 1.3% in 2013, according to the new preliminary data.
Unemployment remains low, climbing to 5.5% in January 2015, from 5.3% a monthearlier.
Danske Bank notes its forecasts as follows on Thursday....
As the monetary contraction continues and inflation is accelerating in a weak rouble and sanction environment, we expect the economy to shrink by 7.9% y/y in 2015 and 0.8% y/y in 2016. February 2015consensus was for the Russian economy to shrink 4.0% y/y in 2015 (average) and grow 0.5% y/y in 2016.
We expect the unemployment rate to reach 8.0% in 2015 but not to exceed the level of 2009. We believe the heavily devalued rouble is protecting public sector jobs better than in the previous crisis.
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