India’s 10-year government bond yield may finish March 2027 between 6.75% and 7%, even if the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raises its policy repo rate to 6%, according to an SBI Research forecast reported Nov. 1 by the Press Trust of India (PTI) and Asian News International (ANI). The estimate allows for a 50-basis-point increase from the current 5.50% rate. It is a research view, not RBI guidance.
The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Oct. 7 and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, according to its policy resolution. A separate SBI Research note dated Oct. 7 treated a 6% repo rate by December as a possibility, with further action tied to inflation trends. The RBI has not committed to that increase.
The Ministry of Finance’s Sept. 25 plan set FY27 market borrowing through dated securities at ₹15.99506 trillion, compared with a ₹17.2 trillion budget estimate. It scheduled ₹7.86 trillion in borrowing for the fiscal year’s second half, across 23 weekly auctions.
PTI separately reported SBI Research’s estimate that Indian government bond supply would total ₹21.40 trillion against demand of ₹19.88 trillion, leaving supply ₹1.52 trillion above demand. Those figures were relayed by PTI as the research team’s estimate.
The RBI describes the government securities market as a source of public financing and a benchmark for other fixed-income markets.
The RBI’s next scheduled policy meeting is Dec. 2-4.
