The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said aid fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025, while the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates a $179 billion gap by 2028.
The OECD’s preliminary figures cover members and associates of its Development Assistance Committee (DAC). Official development assistance totaled $174.3 billion in 2025, or 0.26% of donors’ combined gross national income, down from $215.1 billion in 2024. SIPRI said global military spending reached a record $2.9 trillion, equal to 2.5% of gross domestic product.
In its higher-needs scenario, SIPRI estimates 2028 requirements at $326 billion against projected DAC commitments, a difference of $179 billion. Its lower-needs scenario still leaves a $27 billion gap. The $326 billion estimate and both gap figures are in constant 2024 U.S. dollars. The model accounts for factors including armed conflict and natural disasters.
After excluding bilateral aid to Ukraine and donor costs for hosting refugees, core aid totaled $141 billion in 2025, its lowest level since 2008. SIPRI identified health and economic infrastructure as areas with the largest declines. It warned that reduced assistance could worsen development outcomes and constrain humanitarian responses, with implications for security and stability.
SIPRI’s case studies of Germany and the United Kingdom found aid cuts would account for only a small share of planned increases in military spending, despite governments citing defense needs when explaining reductions. SIPRI researcher Xiao Liang said aid can help address long-term security risks as part of a broader strategy that also includes military spending.
The U.K. plans to lower its aid target from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income by 2027, a policy change discussed in EconoTimes’ earlier coverage of the U.K.’s aid target.
