Serbia’s parliamentary election on Sunday, Oct. 25, is approaching with no polling consensus on whether the student-backed list or the slate led by former President Aleksandar Vučić has the advantage.
New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM) put Student List – Students Win ahead by 1.8 percentage points among respondents who named a list. Its telephone survey questioned 1,050 people in Serbia, excluding Kosovo, from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5. NSPM said the survey was conducted for its own use.
A later survey by Ipsos Strategic Marketing showed the opposite ranking. In interviews conducted by phone and online from Oct. 20 to 22, Ipsos found 47.4% for Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia and 40.0% for the student list among people who gave a preference. The survey covered 3,624 voting-age people in Serbia, excluding Kosovo and the diaspora; Ipsos said the Vučić-led list commissioned it.
Ipsos estimated turnout at 64.7%, with an interval of 62.9% to 66.5%. NSPM reported that 79.8% of its respondents said they would definitely vote and 13.3% said they probably would. The NSPM figures measure stated voting intention, so they are not directly comparable with Ipsos’ turnout estimate.
Euronews reported that Berta López Domènech, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, said an alternative to Vučić had “real options” for the first time. She described the contest as close and expected high participation. Those are her assessments; the disclosed polls differ on which list is ahead.
Then-President Aleksandar Vučić set the early election for Oct. 25 and dissolved the legislature elected on Dec. 17, 2023. Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission approved Student List – Students Win for the ballot on Sept. 15. The Centre for Eastern Studies describes this as Serbia’s third snap parliamentary election in six years.
Vučić resigned as president on Sept. 27 to take part in the parliamentary election. National Assembly Speaker Ana Brnabić assumed presidential duties as acting president, and the Serbian government says a separate presidential election must be held by the end of December.
The vote follows the student movement’s challenge to Serbia’s ruling coalition. The Associated Press linked the movement to protests after the Nov. 1, 2024, collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad. Novi Sad prosecutors put the death toll at 16 and said one other person was seriously injured. Voters are due to cast ballots Sunday, Oct. 25.
