Shell Shares Drop 7% Amid Higher Q1 Taxes and Cash Flow Concerns

Shell Plc (LON:SHEL) shares fell over 7% on Monday after a Q1 2025 trading update signaled rising upstream taxes and significant working capital buildup, overshadowing solid gas and oil trading results.

Despite challenges, Shell reported resilient gas trading, even with a previously disclosed $200–300 million loss from expiring hedge contracts. Oil trading rebounded, matching levels seen during the mid-2024 seasonal peak. However, in Integrated Gas, Shell revised its liquefaction volume forecast down to 6.4–6.8 million tonnes, while maintaining stable trading performance.

Operating expenses in the segment are expected at $900 million to $1.1 billion—below RBC Capital Markets’ $1.2 billion forecast. Depreciation and amortisation (D&A) is projected between $1.2–1.6 billion, with tax guidance slightly above consensus at $700 million to $1 billion.

In the upstream division, Shell maintained its production forecast at 1.79–1.89 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with expectations. However, it flagged significantly higher tax costs of $2.4–3.2 billion, far above RBC’s $1.8 billion estimate. Operating expenses are seen at $2.1–2.7 billion, with D&A at $1.9–2.5 billion. The company expects $200 million in income from joint ventures and $100 million in exploration write-offs.

Downstream showed mixed results, with refining margins rising to $6.20 per barrel while chemical margins dipped to $126 per tonne from $138. Renewables and Energy Solutions may report anywhere from a $300 million loss to a $300 million gain, reflecting high volatility.

Shell also warned of a possible $5 billion working capital build and a $2 billion swing in derivatives. Cash taxes are expected at $2.5–3.3 billion, above RBC’s $2.4 billion estimate, raising concerns over short-term cash flow.