In a Nov. 6, 2026, post, Nate Silver outlined three election climates for the 2028 Senate map, asking whether Republicans could retake the chamber and how large a Democratic majority might be in 2029.
His focus was the Senate’s makeup when the next president takes office in 2029. Silver framed the map around a scenario in which Democrats finish 2026 with 56 seats.
Silver’s 56-seat projection depended in part on two pending races: he reported that prediction markets put Scott Colom and Mary Peltola at 98% to be declared the winners in Mississippi and Alaska. Those odds were market probabilities, not official results.
Brown’s special-election victory puts him on the ballot again in 2028; the other Democrats elected this year are not due to face voters until 2032.
Silver evaluated a 13-point Democratic advantage on the national House ballot, a five-point Democratic edge and a three-point Republican edge. The first case assumed a repeat of Tuesday’s strong Democratic result. He compared the middle case to 2012, with Democrats translating the national environment into House outcomes more efficiently than they had then. His Republican scenario resembled the 2024 environment.
Silver said the ratings were an early sketch distinct from FLIPR, with short notes on selected races. The categories ranged from solid Republican to tossup to solid Democratic. For a separate 2028 outlook, he said FLIPR points to a Democratic-favorable national climate if Trump remains as unpopular as he is now.
Silver said he probably will publish a deeper review of the 2028 Senate races early in 2027.
