Silver Surges to Yearly Peak as Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar to 100%

Silver hits fresh year high on rate cut hopes.It hit a high of $41.47 and is currently trading around $41.173.

The August 2025 Non-Farm Payroll report, showing only 22,000 jobs added against expectations of 75,000, a 4.3% unemployment rate, and significant downward revisions to prior months, has driven the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025 to 100%, with a 92% chance of a 25 basis point cut and an 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut, per CME FedWatch. The three-month job creation average of 29,000 underscores labor market weakness, prompting analysts from Bank of America and Standard Chartered to forecast cuts, with the latter doubling its expectation to a 50 basis point reduction. Fed officials, including Jerome Powell, have shifted focus to labor market risks over inflation, with markets reacting through a declining US Dollar Index (DXY), falling Treasury yields, and initial stock market gains. Political pressure from the White House, including comments from Kevin Hassett, further supports expectations of aggressive easing. A near-term rate cut could boost crypto and equity positions by enhancing liquidity and reducing borrowing costs, though volatility may persist due to economic uncertainty.

Trading Strategy and Key Levels for Silver

The commodity is trading above the short-term (34 and 55 EMA) and long-term moving average (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term support is around $39.80, and any violation below will drag the commodity to $39.28/$38.80/$38/$37.78/$37.30/$36.65/$36.17/$35.70/$35.47. The immediate resistance is at $41.50; any breach above targets $43/$44/$45.

It is good to buy on dips around $40 with a stop-loss at $38.75 for a TP of $43/$44.