U.S. voters will decide all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate seats on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with returns offering a measure of whether pre-election views of President Donald Trump carry into congressional voting.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey interviewed 1,289 registered voters by phone, text and online on Oct. 19-20. Its margin of error among likely voters was 3.8 percentage points. In that group, 59% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, including 53% who strongly disapproved. Forty-four percent said their congressional vote was mainly against Trump, while 21% said it was mainly in his favor.
NPR’s election-night guide points to Indiana’s 5th and Kentucky’s 6th congressional districts, both held by Republicans, as early indicators of Republican turnout. It also identifies Florida’s 22nd and 27th districts as places to watch for Republican support and Latino voter support. The Associated Press separately reported that the Florida 22nd District race is competitive under the state’s new congressional map.
Among likely-voting independents, Marist found that Democratic congressional candidates led Republicans, 52% to 39%.
In Michigan, the Department of State’s candidate list names Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers. NPR flags Black turnout in Wayne County, home to Detroit, as a signal to watch. Census Bureau data show that Black alone accounted for 36.8% of the county’s population in 2020.
A Harvard Institute of Politics poll of 2,024 young Americans, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 7, found that 63% of respondents who said they would definitely vote described their congressional vote as opposition to Trump and his policies; 14% described it as support. The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, known as CIRCLE, estimates that 27% of 18-to-29-year-olds voted in the 2022 midterms.
The Texas Secretary of State’s certified ballot lists Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico, as well as Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa. NPR says South Texas county returns and the difference between Abbott’s and Paxton’s totals are worth watching. The Associated Press reports that Latino voters make up more than 30% of Texas’ electorate.
The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. The cited surveys measure stated preferences; election returns will show how those preferences compare with votes cast.
